Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
